Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Pollies' bad behaviour & dishonesty worsening all over

We are witnessing history being made. Unfortunately, it s a history-making decline in standards of political behaviour. At least it proves we 're not merely imagining that things were better in the old days. Tempting though it is, one of the things incoming governments don' t do is delve into the affairs of their predecessor. The papers of the old government aren 't made available to the new masters. But all that is out...
Read more >>

Monday, February 24, 2014

Abbott's anti-union push not what it appears

If you were a conspiracy theorist it would be easy to see Tony Abbott's actions against unions as revealing his true dastardly intentions despite all his soothing statements before the election. But I see it just as standard Coalition behaviour, motivated more by a search for political advantage than by a desire to free the economy from the scourge of unionism. Indeed, when the union movement finally expires - which can't...
Read more >>

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Why the success of the G20 matters

It's easy to be cynical about the G20. Will the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Sydney this weekend, and the leaders' summit in Brisbane in November, amount to anything more than talkfests? People say the Brisbane summit will be the largest and most important economic meeting ever held in Australia. That's true, but it just means it will be bigger than the Sydney APEC leaders' summit in 2007...
Read more >>

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Drawing a line between the market and the social

The hard part of economics, politics and public policy is deciding where to draw the line. It's as easy as pie to take a position at one extreme or the other. To buy the whole Liberal or Labor package - which, after a change of government, will often involve supporting things you opposed six months ago. To oppose virtually all government regulation or to think more regulation is never enough. Doing it this way always feels...
Read more >>

Monday, February 17, 2014

Hockey risks scaring off consumers

You can never be sure what a fall in the measures of consumer confidence actually proves, but if I were Joe Hockey I'd be a bit worried. If he keeps on playing tough guy he may frighten people into clamping their purses shut. We learnt last week that the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell by 3 per cent this month, down 9.5 per cent from its election-time high. Optimists now barely outnumber pessimists,...
Read more >>

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Why the jobs will come, though we can't say where

Take the news that Toyota is joining Holden and Ford in ceasing to make cars in Australia, then add the news that unemployment is now the highest it has been in a decade and you see why everyone's asking the obvious question: where will the new jobs be coming from? Bill Shorten has joined others in demanding to see the Abbott government's ''jobs plan''. If the government has no plan to ensure there are new jobs to replace...
Read more >>

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Why the end of car-making isn't such a terrible thing

One advantage of getting old is meant to be a greater sense of perspective. You've seen a lot of change over your lifetime and seeing a bit more doesn't convince you the world is coming to an end. Unfortunately, getting old can also leave you convinced every change is for the worst as the world goes to the dogs. A lot of people have been disturbed by the news that Toyota's closure as a car maker in 2017 will bring an end...
Read more >>

Monday, February 10, 2014

We need a wage problem, so let's imagine one

It's been two decades since we had reason to worry about excessive wage growth. This remains true despite cabinet ministers and some economists saying we have a problem. The structural reason we don't have to worry is the continuing effect of the Hawke-Keating government's micro-economic reforms - particularly the floating of the dollar, the removal of protection against imports, deregulation of many industries and the...
Read more >>

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Top 10 economic reforms that transformed Australia

1. Floating the dollar Letting the market set the value of the Aussie dollar after December 1983 allowed it to fluctuate between US48c and $US1.10 so far, making it an absorber of shocks from the rest of the world. This has made the economy more stable and stopped the resources boom causing an inflation blowout. 2. Deregulating the banks Introducing foreign banks and allowing...
Read more >>

Our three top treasurers in 40 years

In the 40 years I've now been an economic journalist for Fairfax Media I've given 12 federal treasurers the benefit of my free advice. I doubt it has made much difference, but I do know this: despite all you read in the paper, our economy is now far better managed than it used to be. For this I give most of the political credit to just three of them: Paul Keating, by a country mile, Peter Costello and one you won't believe:...
Read more >>

A short history of the economy

To me it doesn't seem all that long ago, but looking back I have to admit the economy has changed hugely since my first day as an over-age cadet journalist on February 7, 1974. Some things are worse, but a lot are better. What strikes me most, however, is the roller-coaster ride we have been on to get from then to now. In those days, just eight years after we moved from pounds, shillings and pence, TV was still black...
Read more >>

How my views have changed over 40 years

They say if you still believe at 50 what you believed when you were 15, you haven't lived. Just this week I've now worked at Fairfax Media as an economics journalist for 40 years. Those ages don't quite fit, but my views today are certainly very different from what they were when I started. When, disillusioned with life as a chartered accountant, I began at Fairfax, most of my effort went into relearning the economics I ...
Read more >>

Monday, February 3, 2014

Hockey faces daunting budget challenge

In shaping this year's budget - their most important macro-economic task for the year - Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey face a dilemma: the timing for a particularly tough budget may be right politically, but it's anything but right economically. It's clear they intend to follow the example of John Howard and Paul Keating by using the first budget after their election to have an almighty cleanout and strike a lasting blow for...
Read more >>

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Outlook for the economy: short-term and long

A lot of people believe Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey begin their first full year in office facing a daunting economic challenge, even a crisis. But what is the nature of the challenge? How daunting is it, and how pressing? Well, let's analyse it - and do so using some of the standard distinctions economists use to get their heads around a problem. People see the government as having a problem with the economy and with its...
Read more >>