We've entered the era of gutless government

Sorry to tell you that I’m finishing this year most unimpressed by Anthony Albanese and his government. I’m still reeling from his last two weeks of parliament, pushing through 45 bills just to show how much he’d achieved and give himself the option of calling an election early next year should he see a break in the clouds.

Some of the measures pushed through at breakneck speed merited much more scrutiny, while some reforms that should have been put through were abandoned. One measure he’d hoped to rush through, fortunately, didn’t make it.

It all left me more conscious of his government’s weak performance, capping off 2 ½ years in which Labor turned its mind to many of the problems left by its Liberal predecessors, did a bit to help, but never nearly enough.

Why not? Because there were powerful interest groups Labor didn’t want to offend. And because it lives in fear of what the Libs might say. The two-party duopoly has painted itself into a corner, with neither side game to do what needs to be done.

Take the greatest threat to our future: climate change. Labor was elected in May 2022 partly because it seemed to be genuine in its determination to see Australia play its part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, whereas the Coalition seemed only to be pretending to care.

In government, Labor kept its promise to legislate its target of reducing emissions by 43 per cent by 2030. It strengthened its predecessors’ “safeguard mechanism”, limiting emissions by major industries. It made speeches about how nice it would be for Australia to become a world superpower, using clean electricity to manufacture green iron, green aluminium and other things, then export them to Asian countries with far less sun and wind than we have.

So clearly, we’ve now accepted that our industries exporting coal and natural gas will start to phase down and out. What? Gosh no. No, no, if the coal industry wants to extend its mines, that’s fine. If the West Australians want assurance of the need for offshore gas beyond net zero emissions in 2050, that’s fine.

Under the shiny new slogan of Nature Positive, Labor had promised to end further degradation of our natural environment, including by setting up a federal environment protection authority. This was opposed by the Coalition, proudly proclaiming itself to be the mining industry’s great friend, but the necessary legislation could go through thanks to a deal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek had reached with the Greens.

But then the WA premier phoned Albanese to advise that the state’s miners were most unhappy about further efforts to protect the environment, so the deal was squashed. But not to worry. Should Albo decide against an early election, the bill would be back on the drawing board when parliament resumed for a short sitting in February.

In his timidity, Albanese has introduced to politics the each-way bet. Strong support for the move to renewables? Of course. Continuing support for the use and export of fossil fuels? Of course. Welcome to the era of gutless government.

From the greatest threat to our future on this planet to the greatest example of populist cynicism. To great applause from voters – and with the whole world watching this Aussie reform, up there with the secret ballot – Albanese rushed through his bill banning children under 16 from using social media.

Had he figured out a foolproof way of enforcing the ban? Could the kids soon find ways around it? Would we all be forced to provide trustworthy tech giants such as Facebook and TikTok with documentary proof of our age? No. Let’s just push the bill through and worry about such details later. And never mind the experts saying what’s needed is to train our young people how to detect misinformation and disinformation.

This is politicians acting on their cynical maxim that “the appearance is the reality”. They don’t need actually to fix a problem, just create the appearance of fixing it. Just do something the unthinking punters, and the shock jocks who lead them on, happily imagine will fix things.

The promised measures that were dropped from Albanese’s frenetic bill-passing included action to curb the advertising of sports gambling and the plan – announced in February last year – to raise the tax on superannuation balances over $3 million (a needed reform despite what it would have cost a poor battler such as me).

One bit of good news was the disappearance of Labor’s bill to reform election fundraising. Although it included various valuable changes, its claim to be taking “big money” out of politics was a thinly disguised plot to knock out Clive Palmer and the teals’ funding from Climate 200 while ignoring the political duopoly’s funding from the unions and big business.

Fortunately, the duopolists couldn’t agree to push it through.

The sad part of Albanese’s unimpressive performance is that there’s little reason to believe the Peter Dutton-led Coalition would do any better at fixing the many problems the Morrison government left for Labor to deal with. One of which, of course, was the cause of what soon unfolded after the May 2022 election to become the “cost-of-living crisis”. Much of the surge in prices came from overseas disruptions to supply. The rest, according to the Reserve Bank’s reasoning, came from the stimulus applied by the Morrison and state governments that turned out to be far more than needed.

Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers have done a good job in managing the unfinished return to low inflation, but they have no control over when the Reserve will decide to start cutting interest rates. If, as seems likely, Labor loses seats at next year’s election, that will be voters punishing it for the cost of living, over which it had little control, not for its weak performance in so many other areas.

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The Australian economy is behaving strangely

By MILLIE MUROI, Economics Writer

Australian consumers are usually the engine room of the economy. Every extra dollar we spend drives economic growth higher – and there’s so many of us that we’re usually a force to be reckoned with. In the three months to September, though, something strange happened.

We had more income to splurge but shied away from spending much of the extra cash according to national accounts data from our number-crunchers at the Australian Bureau of Statistics this week. Instead, a bigger share of our pay made its way into piggy banks, mattresses and bank vaults.

Households, while still accounting for nearly half the economy, took a back seat. So, how did the Australian economy still manage to step up?

The size of our economy can be measured in three ways: output (the amount of goods and services we pump out), income (the amount of profit pocketed by businesses and pay that has flowed into households) or by looking at all the spending that happens.

That last one includes money spent by the government, businesses, foreigners (buying up our exports) and our heavy lifters: households. Since the mid-2000s, household consumption has accounted for at least half the size of our economy. It’s only this September quarter that household spending dropped to less than half of gross domestic product (GDP).

Does that mean households are struggling? Well, it depends on how you look at it.

If people’s shopping receipts are any indication of their living standards, you could argue things are looking pretty stagnant. Household spending came in flat at 0 per cent growth.

And, in fact, if we look at spending per household, we’re grinding backwards. Why? Because our population has been boosted by migration. While overall household spending has stayed flat in the September quarter, we’re individually spending less than we were earlier in the year. And that’s after we saw total household spending growth turn negative the previous quarter.

Growth for the wider economy has also been slipping into reverse when we account for population growth. Looking at economic growth per person, we’ve been sliding backwards for nearly two years.

Back to households, though. It’s not all bad news. We actually spent a touch more on discretionary goods and services – things we may not need but are nice to have, such as new clothing and recreation. Spending on essentials, meanwhile, fell. We spent more on things such as rent and staying healthy, but dished out far less on electricity and gas thanks to a warmer-than-expected winter, and partly thanks to the government’s energy bill relief that took the heat out of our energy bills.

Household disposable income – the amount we have left over to spend or save after paying our taxes – also grew. Not only did our income (at least collectively) grow by 1.3 per cent, mainly thanks to pay rises, many of us also had our taxes slashed, too. Stage 3 tax cuts came into play in July, pushing down the income tax we paid during the quarter by 3.8 per cent. Those who had money stashed in the bank also got a boost from interest rates on deposits.

But we didn’t do what a lot of economists (and the Reserve Bank) expected us to do – or at least not to the degree they thought we would. Instead of going on a spending spree with our extra cash, we squirrelled a lot of it away. It’s common for people, especially when they’re worried about their finances, to take a while to work out how they are going to spend their extra money.

The household ratio of saving to income – which tells us how much of our disposable income we stowed away for a rainy day – grew from 2.4 per cent last quarter to 3.2 per cent. Since our incomes grew, but we weren’t spending any more than we were in the June quarter, the slice of our pay going towards savings increased.

The saving-to-income ratio is still much lower than the 10 to 20 per cent we were at during the pandemic when the rivers of stimulus payments gushed in, and our spending options were locked down, but it has been climbing back from a low of 1.5 per cent in March last year.

Of course, the money we save ends up sitting idle – at least while it stays in our coffers. We don’t spend it, so it doesn’t flow back into businesses, and doesn’t stimulate the economy to grow.

But our decision to save a lot of the money we got to keep thanks to tax cuts doesn’t explain the slow – but positive – upward crawl of the economy. If households didn’t spend any more than they did in the previous three months, then how did the economy still manage to expand?

A big driver of our economic growth was spending – not by households or businesses – but by the government. It contributed 0.6 percentage points to growth in the three months to September. Part of this was thanks to a pick-up in public investment by state and local governments on infrastructure projects such as roads and renewable projects.

But a big chunk of the government spending was on cost-of-living relief, such as the energy rebates, which basically just shifted what would have been paid by consumers to cook and heat their homes, to the government’s shopping list. It meant overall government spending hit a near-record-high share of the economy at more than 28 per cent.

Since overall economic growth only came in at 0.3 per cent (notably lower than the 0.5 per cent economists had been expecting), government spending made the difference between our economy shrinking and treading water.

There were also other factors with a smaller impact on growth, including a slight uptick in the construction of new homes, which pushed up private investment spending. There was also a fall in inventories (generally stock held by companies) and net overseas trade – as imports fell and exports grew – which contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP.

Although the economy’s usual star player – households – spent less than expected in the September quarter, there are signs things will pick up in the final three months of the year. For one thing, retail trade picked up 0.6 per cent in October, even before all the major discounts started kicking in last month, coaxing customers (and their wallets) out for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

So, how does this position the Reserve Bank?

While economic growth and household spending growth are running below its forecasts, the bank has previously said the level of demand – how much we’re spending now as opposed to how fast our spending appetites are growing – is still too high unless we improve how much (or how efficiently) we can produce things.

It’ll take more weakness in spending, or more progress on slamming a lid on inflation, for the Reserve Bank to start cutting rates. So far, Australian households – and their spending – seem stuck in the holding pen.

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How Albanese is tighten up on tax-dodging multinational companies

By MILLIE MUROI, Economics Writer

Earlier this week, a crucial piece of legislation made its way through parliament. It didn’t receive a lot of fanfare, but it’s a long-overdue tweak to our tax system.

You probably know companies such as Amazon, Apple and Microsoft. They’re multinational corporations that make hundreds of billions of dollars in profit every year, some of it right here in Australia – and probably from you as a customer.

Yet, the taxes they pay are not always proportional to the profit they’re pocketing. That’s something laws passed earlier this week seek to change.

Apple raked in an income of more than $12 billion in the 2022-23 period, according to the government’s transparency report. But it only paid 1 per cent tax on that income. How is that possible?

While the company tax rate in Australia is 30 per cent for most businesses with a turnover of $50 million or more, firms can reduce their taxable income and, therefore, the amount of tax they pay.

Some deductions are fair and reasonable: for example, claiming deductions for day-to-day business expenses including materials you need to supply a good or service. Other strategies are … questionable.

A business like Apple may not be breaking the law, but it can take advantage of different tax rates across the world.

Australia’s company tax is among the highest in the world. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, we were only trumped by one country: Colombia, where companies paid about one-third of their income in tax.

By contrast, countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates have much smaller company tax rates, making them attractive tax havens. Companies can sneakily shift their income to these countries or use cunning tactics to play the system to their favour.

Former economics professor turned Assistant Minister for Competition, Charities and Treasury Dr Andrew Leigh says the share of multinational companies’ profits passing through tax havens has soared. Back in the 1970s, virtually no multinational profits went through tax havens, he says. “Now it’s up to about 40 per cent.”

Stronger reporting requirements and wider availability of data have made it easier to spot when a company is skirting the rules, acting as a deterrent for businesses hoping to fly under the radar with sneaky tactics.

And in 2017, the Australian Taxation Office found itself in a legal battle in the ongoing crusade against companies paying less tax through loopholes in the system, coming out on top against resource giant Chevron.

The Federal Court ruled against Chevron’s use of an arrangement called related-party finance – commonly used by multinationals to reduce the tax they have to pay in Australia.

It’s where the local entity of a multinational firm borrows funds from its offshore counterpart, which sets much higher interest rates than would usually be reasonable. That interest flows back to the offshore part of that company and allows the Australian branch to claim higher tax deductions because interest payments can be a tax-deductible expense.

Chevron’s Australian subsidiary had taken a $4 billion loan from its US parent company to develop Western Australian gas reserves. This added to the local subsidiary’s debt pile, but allowed it to sidestep Australia’s 30 per cent company tax rate, with those interest payments instead being taxed in the US where the corporate tax rate was lower. In 2017, Chevron had paid no company tax in five of the previous seven financial years.

The Federal Court eventually ruled Chevron’s Australian subsidiary should not be allowed to claim interest on its borrowings from the rest of Chevron Group as if they were two standalone companies. In the 2022-23 period, Chevron paid more than $4 billion in tax.

However, Mark Zirnsak, secretariat for the Tax Justice Network, says that ruling has not closed the loophole entirely. Instead, he says Chevron got too greedy. “It’s still legal to claim the interest rate payment to yourself like Chevron did,” he says. “What the ATO contested was the rate of interest.”

Get it? If Chevron had just charged itself a standard rate of interest – similar to a bank – there would have been no issues.

Related party finance is just one of the many tricks multinationals use to dodge the Aussie taxman.

There’s also something called “transfer pricing” which companies such as mining giant BHP have been penalised for. For years, BHP was selling Australian iron ore and coal to its Singapore operation. Now, there’s nothing wrong with that – except that BHP was then selling these commodities for much more from its Singapore marketing hub to other nations.

Since Singapore has a much lower corporate tax rate, BHP was reducing its tax bill despite the coal and iron ore originally coming from Australia.

This week, the Australian government finally joined the growing army of countries – more than 135 so far – that have agreed to a global minimum tax of 15 per cent: A company with more than $1.2 billion in global revenue must pay at least 15 per cent tax across its global operations. Otherwise, the countries they’re doing business in can now get a bite of its untaxed profits.

This is supposed to deter companies from creating artificial structures in low or no-tax territories, such as the Cayman Islands, in a bid to avoid paying taxes in places where they actually do their business.

It’s also supposed to prevent a “race to the bottom” where countries compete for the lowest company tax rates to attract businesses. How? Because if countries charge company tax rates below 15 per cent, then other countries can impose “top-up” taxes.

Australia, for example, can now apply a “top-up tax” on a multinational operating in Australia if that multinational pays less than a 15 per cent tax rate wherever it does business globally.

Zirnsak says the 15 per cent rate is too low, but a positive change for now.

“The Biden administration would have liked to push it higher, and the Europeans were pushing for it to be lower, so at the end of the day, 15 per cent was a compromise,” he says.

“It’s no longer going to be a game where you can simply try and cheat the governments of the countries you’re actually doing business in through your artificial legal structures and working with governments that are happy to assist you in tax avoidance and profit.”

Leigh says the next step for the government is to crack down on tech giants, which have been more difficult to pin down. That’s partly because of the virtual nature of their services which has made taxing them properly an elusive exercise globally.

Of course, it’s a long-overdue change, and there’s lots left to do. But shifty multinational taxation tactics are being squeezed out.

It’s not just the big guys playing sneaky games. But as Leigh says, the local cafe you bought your coffee from today probably doesn’t pay an accountant exorbitant amounts to figure out how to minimise their tax.

“They don’t sit down at their weekly planning meeting and decide which country they want to pay tax in to minimise their tax.”

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