Australia's future to be made under Treasury's watchful eye

The Albanese government’s Future Made in Australia has had a rapturous reception from some, but a suspicious reception from others (including me). In a little-noticed speech last week, however, one of our former top econocrats gave the plan a tick.

Rod Sims, former chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, and now chair of Professor Ross Garnaut’s brainchild, the Superpower Institute, has been reassured by the plan’s “national interest framework”, prepared by Treasury and issued with the budget.

But first, the budget announced that the government would “invest” – largely by way of tax concessions – $22.7 billion in the plan over the next decade.

Treasury’s framework will be included in the planned Future Made in Australia Act. It will “clearly articulate” how the government will identify those industries that will get help under the act, to “impose rigour on government’s decision-making on significant public investments, particularly those used to incentivise private investment at scale,” according to Treasury.

So, Sims is reassured by the knowledge that the framework – and Treasury – will ensure that “sound economics has been applied”. “In my view, [the plan] represents a growth and productivity opportunity every bit as bold as seen under previous governments,” he says.

Some of those giving the plan a rapturous reception believed it was “a welcome return to activist industry policy and making more things and value-adding in Australia,” Sims says. But “despite what has been said for political reasons, this is not the logic driving [the plan] as described by Treasury”.

Sims says we don’t need to revisit old and tired debates about protectionism. But as it happens, he notes, making more things in Australia will be an outcome of the plan.

Some said the plan represented the end of “neoliberalism” and a return to interventionist thinking. “It is not that either,” he says. “[The plan] relies on sound economics, and any change in economic thinking is a return to the application of sound economics.”

The way I’d put it is that to intervene or not to intervene is not the question. A moment’s thought reveals that governments have always intervened in the economy. (One of the most incorrigible interveners is a crowd called the Reserve Bank, which keeps fiddling with the interest rates paid and received in the private sector.)

No, as we’ll see, the right question is usually whether the intervention is adequately justified by “market failure” – whether, left to its own devices, the market will deliver the ideal outcomes that economic theory promises.

Others have approved of the plan because it’s about encouraging some local production in necessary supply chains. Sims admits there’s an element of this, as local battery and solar panel manufacture are mentioned, but they are a small part of the program.

Similarly, some move to make supply chains less at risk of disruption may be involved, but it’s not the driving logic of the plan.

Yet others have said the plan is copying the United States and its (misleadingly named) Inflation Reduction Act. “This is incorrect,” Sims says. The Americans’ act “spreads money widely, whereas [the plan] is targeted to Australia’s circumstances”.

The US act “also has many destructive features that we will not copy, such as its protectionist approach.”

But, to be fair to the sceptics, he adds, “the policy’s introduction was poorly handled. It was linked to making solar panel modules, when they can be purchased much more cheaply from China, and then there was the announcement of $1 billion for quantum computing.”

“It helps neither global mitigation [of climate change] nor Australian development to force manufacture here, if the final products are produced most cost-effectively elsewhere.”

So, if the plan isn’t mainly about protectionism, what’s its main purpose? Achieving the net zero transition and turning Australia into a renewable energy superpower.

Treasury’s national interest framework says the net zero transition and “heightened geostrategic competition” (code for the rivalry between the US and China) are transforming the global economy.

“These factors are changing the value of countries’ natural endowments, disrupting trade patterns, creating new markets, requiring heightened adaptability and rewarding innovation,” the framework says.

“Australia’s comparative advantages, capabilities and trade partnerships mean that these global shifts present profound opportunity for Australian workers and businesses.” We can foster new, globally competitive industries that will boost our economic prosperity and resilience, while supporting decarbonisation.

In considering the prudent basis for government investment in new industries, the framework will consider the following factors: Australia’s grounds for expecting lasting competitiveness in the global market; the role the new industry will play in securing an orderly path to net zero and building our economic resilience and security; whether the industry will build key capabilities; and whether the barriers to private investment can be resolved through public investment in a way that delivers “compelling public value”.

So, that’s quite a few hurdles you have to jump before the government starts giving you tax breaks. And proposals will be divided between two streams: the net zero transformation stream and the economic resilience and security stream. We can only hope that a lot more of the money goes to the former stream than the latter.

To justify government intervention, the framework requires evidence of “market failure” such as “negative externalities” that arise because the new clean industry is competing against fossil fuel-powered industries which, in the absence of a price on carbon, haven’t been required to bear the cost to the community of the greenhouse gases they emit.

Another case of market failure are the “positive externalities” that arise when the first firms in a new industry aren’t rewarded for the losses they incur while learning how the new technology works, to the benefit of all the firms that follow them.

Politicians being politicians, I doubt whether Treasury’s policing of its national interest framework will ensure none of the $22.7 billion is wasted. But we now have stronger grounds for hoping that Treasury’s oversight will keep the crazy decisions to a minimum.

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Why the customer doesn't always come first

The world is a complicated place. I have no doubt that the capitalist, market-based way of running an economy delivers the best results for workers and consumers. But that doesn’t mean companies never do bad things, nor that every business always does the right thing by its customers.

The father of modern economics, Adam Smith, famously said that “it is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest”.

But, he argued, the “invisible hand” of “market forces” – the interaction of demand and supply in moving prices up and down – takes all the self-interest of businesses and the self-interest of consumers and turns them into businesses getting adequately rewarded for delivering just the right combination of goods and services to all the people in the economy.

There’s a huge amount of truth to that simple – if hard to believe – proposition. But it’s not the whole truth. One way to think of it is that, as Winston Churchill said of democracy, it’s the worst way of doing it – except for all the other ways. In this case, except for leaving all the decisions about what and how much to produce to the government.

So, to say capitalism is the best way of organising an economy isn’t to say it’s without fault. That it never does things badly.

In a speech this week, Rod Sims, the former chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, but now a professor at the Australian National University, said that although companies regularly proclaim that they put their customers first, “companies clearly do not always have the interests of their customers in mind”.

So what are the reasons that, almost 250 years after Smith’s discovery, capitalism doesn’t always give consumers a good deal.

Sims can think of six reasons market forces don’t live up to their billing.

For a start, meeting customer needs may not be the main way companies increase their profits. Businesses are motivated to make profits and to increase those profits. But being the best at meeting the needs of customers isn’t the only way, or even the dominant way, firms succeed, Sims says.

For a firm to stay ahead of its rivals by continually improving its products and services is difficult. And eventually another firm works out how to do things better and cheaper than you.

“Commercial strategy therefore is largely about building defences against the forces of competition. To make it more difficult for other firms to develop a better product. Or, if they do, to limit their access to customers,” he says.

Another reason is that company executives are under considerable sharemarket pressure to increase short-term profits. Companies strive to grow because this attracts investors, the value of their shares rises and their top executives get bigger bonuses.

Sims says many companies set high growth targets to meet the expectations of the sharemarket. Often these targets are higher than the economy’s growth, meaning not all firms can meet or exceed market expectations.

So, in some cases, company executives see no alternative but to push the boundaries to achieve the targets they’ve been set.

That’s bad, but it becomes worse if the poor behaviour of a few causes normal competitive pressure to keep getting better than the others to reverse and become a race to the bottom.

Sims says that in well-functioning markets firms compete on their merits. Firms that offer what consumers value, displace firms that don’t. But the opposite can occur if poor behaviour goes undetected and unpunished, so it gives bad players a competitive edge.

“Firms can win customers through misrepresenting their offers and employing high-pressure selling tactics,” he says. As well as hurting consumers, such behaviour hurts rival firms, tempting them to protect their market share by employing the same questionable tactics.

Yet another problem occurs when firms see nothing wrong with what they’re doing, but their customers do. They (and economists) see nothing wrong with offering a better price – or interest rate – to new customers than they’re charging their existing customers.

But those older customers commonly react with outrage when they discover they’ve gone for years paying more than they needed to. They feel their loyalty has been abused.

Speaking of loyalty, Sims’ final explanation of why customers may be treated badly is that executives may feel their obligations to their company compel them to pursue profit to the maximum, even if their behaviour pushes too close to the boundaries of the law and isn’t the behaviour they would engage in privately.

So, what should be done about all these instances of “market failure” – where markets don’t deliver the wonderful benefits advertised by economists?

Sims has two remedies. First, as he argued strongly while boss of the competition and consumer commission, it needs stronger merger laws to help it prevent anti-competitive mergers. The courts require evidence about what will happen after a merger has occurred, but it’s hard for the commission to prove what hasn’t yet happened.

“The courts seem largely unwilling to accept commercial logic; that if you have market power you will use it. The courts can sometimes seem naive,” he says.

Second, we need a law against unfair practices, as they have in the United States, Britain and most of Europe.

“Our current laws are poorly suited to stopping behaviour ranging from online manipulation of consumers, to processors saying they will reject farm goods unless the prices agreed before the goods were shipped are now lowered.”

In the end, it’s simple. All the claims that capitalism will deliver a great deal for consumers are based on the assumption that businesses face stiff competition from other businesses to keep them in line.

But when too many markets are dominated by a few huge companies, service goes down and prices go up by more than they should.

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Treasury thinks the unthinkable: yes, intervene in the gas market

If you think economists say crazy things, you’re not alone. Speaking about our soaring cost of living this week, Treasury Secretary Dr Steven Kennedy told a Senate committee that “the solution to high prices is high prices”. But then he said this didn’t apply to the prices of coal and gas.

How could anyone smart enough to get a PhD say such nonsense? He even said – in a speech actually read out by one of his deputies – that this piece of crazy-speak was something economists were “fond of saying”.

It’s true, they are. If they were children, we’d call it attention-seeking behaviour. But when you unpick their little riddle, you learn a lot about why economists are in love with markets and “market forces”, why they’re always banging on about supply and demand, and why (as I’ve said once or twice before) if economists wore T-shirts, what they’d say is “Prices make the world go round”.

At the heart of conventional economics – aka the “neo-classical model” – lies the “price mechanism”. Understand this, and you understand why the thinking of early economists such as Adam Smith and Alfred Marshall is still influential a century or two after their death, and why, of all the people seeking the ears of our politicians, economists get more notice taken of their advice than other professions do.

The secret sauce economists sell is their understanding of how a lot of seemingly big problems go away if you just give the price mechanism time to solve them.

A market is a place or a shop or cyberspace where people come to sell things to other people. The sellers are supplying the item; the buyers are demanding it. The seller sets the price; the buyer accepts it – or sometimes they haggle or hold an auction.

If the price of some item rises, this draws a response from the price mechanism, which is driven by market forces – the interaction of supply on one side and demand on the other.

The price rise sends a signal to buyers and a signal to sellers. The message buyers get is: this stuff’s more expensive, so make sure you’re not wasting any of it.

And see if you can find a substitute for it that’s almost as good but doesn’t cost as much. If you’ve been buying the deluxe, big-brand version, try the house brand.

On the other side, the message to sellers is: since people are paying more for this stuff, produce more of it. “I’m not in this business, but maybe now the price is higher, I should be.” If the price has risen because the firm’s costs have risen, maybe we could find a way to cut those costs, not put our price up and so pinch customers from our competitors.

See where this is going? If customers react to the higher price by buying less, while sellers react by producing more, what’s likely to happen to the price?

If demand for the item falls, and the supply of the item increases, the higher price should come back down.

Saying the solution to high prices is high prices is a tricky way of saying market forces will react to the price rise in a way that, after a while, brings it back down again.

When demand and supply get out of balance, market forces adjust the price up or down until demand and supply are back in balance. The price mechanism has fixed the problem, returning the market to “equilibrium”.

This is the origin of the old economists’ motto: laissez-faire. Leave things alone. Don’t interfere. Interfering with the mechanism will stop it working properly and probably make things worse rather than better.

There’s a huge degree of truth to this simple analysis. At this moment there are thousands of firms and millions of consumers reacting to price changes in the way I’ve just described.

Kennedy admits that “there are many conditions that underpin” this do-nothing policy, but “in most circumstances Treasury would support such an approach”.

There certainly are many simplifying assumptions behind that oversimplified theory. It assumes all buyers and sellers are so small they have no power by themselves to influence the price.

It assumes all buyers and all sellers know all they need to know about the characteristics of the product and the prices at which it’s available. It assumes competition in the market is fierce. And that’s just for openers.

However, Kennedy said, the circumstances of the price shocks caused by the Ukraine war are “different and outside the frame” of Treasury’s usual approach. Such shocks bring government intervention in the coal and gas markets “into scope”. That is, just do it.

“The current gas and thermal coal price increases are leading to unusually high prices and profits for some companies,” he said. “Prices and profits well beyond the usual bounds of investment and profit cycles.

“The same price increases are leading to a reduction in the real incomes of many people, with the most severely affected being lower-income working households.

“The energy price increases are also significantly reducing the profits of many [energy-using] businesses and raising questions about their viability.”

In summary, Kennedy said, the effects of the Ukraine war are leading to a redistribution of income and wealth, and disrupting markets. “The national-interest case for this redistribution is weak, and it is not likely to lead to a more efficient allocation of resources in the longer term,” he said.

(The efficient allocation of resources – land, labour and capital – is the main reason economists usually oppose government intervention in the price mechanism. Markets usually allocate resources most efficiently.)

The government’s policy response to the problem could take many forms, Kennedy said, but with inflation already so high, policymakers “need to be mindful of not contributing further to inflation”.

This suggests that intervening to directly reduce coal and gas prices is more likely to be the best way to go, he concluded.

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Competition boss warns faith in market economy under threat

In his parting remarks last week, veteran econocrat Rod Sims, boss of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, offered some frank advice to his political masters and big business.

Let me put it even more frankly than he did: if governments don’t require businesses to improve their behaviour, voters and consumers could lose faith that they’re getting a fair shake from a lightly regulated economy and fall for populist solutions that make things worse for everyone.

Though business leaders make speeches in praise of competition, the truth is businesses hate competition. Why wouldn’t they? It makes their jobs much harder. To the extent the law allows, they buy out or bankrupt small competitors, and take over big ones.

In its public statements, the Business Council poses as wanting economic “reform” in the interests of us all. Behind the scenes, it lobbies governments hard to preserve big businesses’ ability to take over competitors and to impose unreasonable terms in transactions with small businesses.

Politicians make speeches about the importance of small business because all those owners add up to many votes. But pollies yield to the lobbying of big businesses because they make generous donations to party coffers, which can be used to buy votes through advertising and the rest.

It follows that the competition commission and whoever’s running it get a hard time from business interests. The more effective that person is in seeking to achieve “effective competition”, the more criticism they attract.

Whenever they take court proceedings that fail, there’s much crowing by business commentators. Elsewhere, competition regulators are attacked for being sleepy and toothless watchdogs.

Of course, public servants are too discrete to say all that. So let’s switch to what Sims actually said in his valedictory speech to the National Press Club. It was frank - by the standards of econocrats.

“When I arrived at the commission [11 years ago] I mentioned my main objective in chairing the commission was ‘that Australians see that a market economy and strong competition work for them and that they see the commission working tirelessly for the long-run interests of consumers’, he said.

“We must recognise that a market-based economy is fragile, as its organising principle relies on companies and businesspeople pursuing their own self-interest. This is not an obvious way to organise things.

“For this to work to the benefit of all Australians requires, at a minimum, strong competition between firms and strong enforcement of the Competition and Consumer Act.

“In our society, large established businesses have a strong voice, which is not surprising as the largest firms employ many people and supply Australians with many of their needs.

“Often, however, the understandable interest of large established businesses in short-term advantage sees them, I believe, work to the disadvantage of their own long-term interests,” he said.

Large established businesses had opposed all the main changes to the competition Act when they were introduced, he said. For example, laws against misleading and deceptive conduct.

“I would ask, however, how many specific interventions and extra red tape would we now have that would damage our market economy, if we did not have this general provision?”

The competition Act largely had economy-wide laws, whose effectiveness underpinned the necessary wide acceptance of the market economy. “Perceptions of unfairness and inequity will see faith in a market economy eroded,” he warned.

Last year Sims proposed a tightening of our merger law. Big business was loud in its disapproval. Distinguished corporate lawyers insisted the present laws were working fine. Business commentators were dismissive.

Last week Sims said “large established businesses and their advisers will oppose these changes, but my guess is that well over 90 per cent of Australians would support them. Further, I think such changes would strengthen our market economy, and would benefit the vast majority of Australian businesses.” (He means the smaller ones.)

When Sims took over the commission in 2011, it had a near-perfect success rate in its court actions. He took this as a sign it was being too cautious in its efforts to enforce the law.

Eleven years later, “we have a good win/loss record, including recent guilty pleas in cartel cases, including by individuals in two criminal cases. I recognise, however, that we have had some losses, including in a recent high-profile case.”

The commission’s record on enforcing the protection of consumers “includes creative wins against companies such as Trivago (where we unpicked its algorithm) and Google, and we have seen penalties imposed by the courts for breaches of the Act increase from $1 million being seen as high, to recent penalties of $50 million against Telstra, $125 million against VW, and $153 million against AIPE, a vocational education provider.”

Let’s hope Sims’ successor is just as diligent in protecting the market economy against its own excesses.

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Economics isn't as highfalutin' as the jargon makes it sound

If you’ve ever had the feeling you ought to know a lot more about economics than you do – even if only to make it harder for economists to bamboozle you – here’s my long-weekend special offer: the key concepts of the discipline explained in one article. As many as I can fit, anyway.

More than a year ago, the boss of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Rod Sims – surely the most experienced senior econocrat evading retirement in Canberra – began a speech by saying economics had become too mathematical and that to be a good economist all you needed was a deep intuitive feel for 10 or 15 concepts.

He then rattled off what he regarded as the 15 most important concepts, “in no particular order”. From those I’ll explain, in order, the five I consider to be most significant.

1. Opportunity cost

The first is one you should have heard of: opportunity cost.

Many economists consider “opp cost” to be the single most important and fundamental concept in economics, and the discipline’s most useful contribution to the betterment of mankind. Indeed, that’s the view Professor John Quiggin, of the University of Queensland, takes in his book Economics in Two Lessons, which I recommend as the best book to introduce you to economics.

Quiggin says “the opportunity cost of anything of value is what you must give up to get it”. Our wants are almost infinite, but our resources are limited, so we have to make choices. Economists’ eternal message to individuals and to the community is: think carefully before you spend your money, make sure you’re spending it on what you really want because you can’t spend it twice.

Really? That complicated, huh? Quiggin says “the lesson of opportunity cost is easy to state but hard to learn”. We keep forgetting to apply it. For instance, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is saying he’s not going to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions if the opportunity cost is to endanger jobs in the coal industry.

Sounds fair enough until you realise he’s saying jobs in a particular industry matter more to him than us doing all we can to help reduce global warming (which will destroy jobs in many industries).

We live in a market economy. We sell our labour in the jobs market, then use the money we earn to buy the goods and services we need in 101 product markets. Economics is the study of markets and, in particular, of how the prices set in markets work to bring supply and demand, sellers and buyers, into agreement (aka “equilibrium” or balance).

2. Invisible hand

The first of Quiggin’s two lessons is “market prices reflect and [also] determine the opportunity costs faced by consumers and producers” – which brings us to Sims’ next key concept, “the invisible hand”.

In a market-based economy (as opposed to a feudal economy or a planned economy), the differing objectives of workers, employers, consumers and producers are co-ordinated (brought together) not by the government issuing orders to people, but by the “price mechanism” (prices going up or down until both sides are satisfied).

That’s the invisible hand. And what motivates this invisible hand is the self-interest of workers, bosses, consumers and businesses. In the famous words of the father of modern economics, Adam Smith, in 1776, “it is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest”.

It’s amazing to think of, but it holds much truth: the invisible hand of markets and prices takes the self-interest of all those competing players and turns it into a situation where most of us have our wants satisfied most of the time.

3. Imperfect competition

But if that sounds a bit too pat – a bit too perfect – it is. It is, in fact, a description of what economists call “perfect markets” and “perfect competition”. And in real life, nothing’s ever perfect. The greatest female economist, Joan Robinson, was the first to formalise Sims’ third key concept, “imperfect competition” – the study of why markets and the price mechanism don’t always work as perfectly as the oversimplified “neo-classical” model of markets assumes they do.

4. Market failure

From the subtitle of Quiggin’s book you see that lesson one is “why markets work so well”, but lesson two is “and why they can fail so badly”. This takes us straight to Sims’ fourth key concept “market failure”. Markets are said to fail when they deliver results that aren’t “allocatively efficient” – when they don’t lead to the particular allocation of economic resources that yields the maximum satisfaction of people’s wants.

Economists have spent much time studying the various categories of factors that cause markets to fail. More recently they have turned to studying “government failure”, which is when governments’ attempts to correct market failures end up making things worse.

5. Externalities

Sims’ final key concept is “externalities” – a major category of market failure. These occur when transactions between sellers and buyers generate costs (or benefits) for third parties – known as “social” costs or benefits – that aren’t reflected in the market or “private” prices paid and received by the buyers and sellers.

These social costs or benefits are thus “external” to the private transaction and the private price mechanism. They constitute market failure because the market generates more costs (or fewer benefits) than is in the public’s interest.

One example of an external benefit is the gain to the wider community (not just the particular individual) when a student graduates from university (which is why uni fees are set at only about half the cost of the course, so as to “internalise” the positive externality).

As for external costs (“negative externalities”), Quiggin notes that the leading British economist Lord Nicholas Stern has described climate change as “the biggest market failure in history”. So now you know why so many of the nation’s economists are appalled by Morrison’s dereliction.

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How to keep the news coming

If you thought the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s latest report on “digital platforms” was about the debatable ways Google and Facebook treat their users, you’re a victim of the news media’s reluctance to bother their audience with the worrying state of their own finances.

The report was really about the effect of digital disruption on what it calls “news and journalistic content”. So great has the disruption been that the day may come when most newspapers cease to exist.

That wouldn’t be quite so terrible if their companies continued to publish news on the internet. But unless they can find a way to make their digital products adequately profitable, it’s possible even this could cease.

At present we get news from two sources almost wholly funded directly by the federal government, the ABC and SBS. But most of the rest of our news comes from commercial businesses: free-to-air radio and television, plus two or three big former newspaper chains, now producers of what the report calls “print/online news”.

We’re so used to this we don’t see how anomalous it is. At one level, the commercial news media are just selling news to make a profit for their shareholders (who, these days, turn out to be mainly everyone with superannuation).

At another level, however, the news they sell us isn’t an ordinary product like soap or cornflakes. We consume news because we find it interesting – even entertaining – but we also need it to keep us informed about what’s going on in the world: what’s happening overseas, what’s happening in the economy, what’s happening about schools, universities, hospitals, law and order, roads, transport and 100 other areas of government responsibility, and what’s happening in the community.

Knowing about all this is of private benefit to you and me, but the fact that we know it is also of social or public benefit to the community as a whole. Each of us would suffer if we were surrounded by people who knew nothing about what was going on.

And imagine how well governments would perform, and elections would work, if we didn’t have the media telling us what the politicians were up to and holding them to account.

I like to say the commercial media also have a “higher purpose”. Journalism academics speak of “public interest journalism”. Fortunately, such anomalies are well understood by economists, including those at the ACCC. They see that news and journalism have the characteristics of a “public good”.

Another strange thing about commercial journalism is that, historically, its customers paid for it mainly indirectly, via the advertising costs built into the prices of the things they buy. That’s obviously true of free-to-air radio and TV, but it’s been almost as true of newspapers, with subscriptions and the cover price covering only a fraction of production costs.

This, however, is what’s disrupted the production of news. First classified advertising moved online, then display advertising and many former newspaper readers. Now about half of all Australian advertising spending has moved online, with Google and Facebook capturing more than half of it and the news media getting just some.

The legacy media used to sell their news in packages, called newspapers or bulletins. But the internet has “atomised” news, with most people searching for news story by story. About half the people coming to news sites do so via Google and Facebook.

The report says news has the two characteristics of a public good: it’s “non-excludable” (you can’t stop people who don’t pay from getting it) and “non-rivalrous” (me knowing about the budget doesn’t stop you knowing about it, in the way me eating an apple stops you eating it).

Public goods are an instance of “market failure”, in that they’re susceptible to “freeriders” (people who leave it to others to pay) and – significantly, in the commission’s mind – because private providers can’t capture enough profit, there’s a high risk they won’t produce as much of the product as would be in the public’s interest.

Sometimes this means governments take over the production of public goods (as they do with public schools and hospitals) or they subsidise the cost of privately produced public goods (as they do with visits to doctors).

The report explores the possible ways the federal government could subsidise news and journalism to ensure its supply is optimal. One way would be a tax incentive scheme, as is done to support local content for film and television.

Or the government could make grants for journalism projects it wished to encourage. But newspaper companies have long rejected any offer of government assistance that could threaten their independence by being withdrawn should they publish news that offended a government.

A better idea would be for private subscriptions to news services to be made tax deductible, just as are donations to charities and even to politically aligned think tanks.

Canada has already taken up the idea. Since deductibility would go to all news outlets that had signed up to industry codes of journalistic standards, and would go directly to customers rather than businesses, it would be hard for politicians to punish individual news organisations.

It’s an idea that could help secure the future of news and journalism.

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Econocrats’ job to minimise damage from lurch to populism

With the collapse of the "neoliberal consensus" between both sides of politics, which is reversing politicians' attitudes to intervention in markets, we're in danger of lurching from one extreme to the other.

My Financial Review colleague Alan Mitchell likes to say that one of the econocrats' primary contributions to good government is to "keep the crazy decisions to a minimum". Never was that truer.

The challenge for Treasury, the Productivity Commission and the rest is to be less doctrinal – less true to the one true economic rationalist faith - and more practical in giving advice that satisfies the pollies' ever-present need to "do something" without the something they do causing a lot of harm, maybe even some good.

To put that into econospeak: econocrats should stop proposing first-best solutions and propose more politically palatable second- or even third-best solutions than have been properly thought through.

Why should they compromise? Because if they go on strike, get the sulks or just let themselves be dealt out of the policy decision process, we'll all be lumbered with a lot of decisions that make things worse rather than better.

That's particularly so now ministers' offices are loaded with pushy young punks at the start of their lifetime careers in politics, who think they know a lot about what's good for the minister and the government but, unfortunately, haven't had the time or inclination to learn much about policy: what works and what doesn't.

Leave a policy vacuum and these chancers will happily fill it. They'll fill it with whatever will get a cheer from the all-indignation-and-no-responsibility radio shock jocks and tabloid loudmouths.

Those reptiles will cheer for what's showy and prejudice-satisfying, not for less spectacular policies the experts know are more likely actually to improve things.

The point is that with the populist reaction against what it's now fashionable for the often-uncomprehending left to call "neoliberalism", we're moving from 30 years of presumption against intervention in markets to a new era of presumption in favour of intervention.

That presumption against intervention came from the 1980s shift to a more fundamentalist approach to neo-classical economics, with its confidence that markets are essentially self-correcting, so intervening in them is more likely to derail this process than assist it.

This involved playing down the significance of "market failure" – factors that stop real-world markets from acting in the perfect way economics textbooks predict they will – or arguing that government interventions to correct market failure usually result in "government failure" – they make the problem worse rather than better.

The rationalists were wrong to play down market failure – it's ubiquitous – and wrong to denigrate government rule-setting for markets as "intervention", as though it's some kind of unnatural act. But they were on to far more than they realised in worrying about government failure.

What ended up discrediting their program of "micro-economic reform" was the way so many privatisations and attempts to make the provision of government services "contestable" were utterly stuffed up by governments that didn't know what they were doing, or were swinging one for their business mates.

Though it's true people have traded with each other since primitive times, it's historical ignorance to imagine that markets in the modern economy are anything other than the creation of governments, regulated and policed under laws of private property, contract, bankruptcy, limited liability, accounting standards and a host of other "interventions" and "regulations".

So there isn't and never has been such an animal as a "free market". What's in question is the degree of regulation and the specifics of what's regulated and how. Presuming against regulation (further or existing) was always an arbitrary and extreme position that would end in tears.

The era of deregulation has discredited itself, with inadequately regulated American and European banks causing the pain and destruction of the global financial crisis, declining standards of business behaviour much in evidence among our own banks, and mounting evidence of business lawlessness.

But for politicians to react to all this with a massive increase in ill-considered regulation would hardly be an improvement.

The real point is regulation is neither intrinsically good nor bad. What it is is very, very tricky. Very hard to get right; easy to get wrong. Bedevilled by "unintended consequences".

Why? Because of the terrible power of "market forces" – actually, profit-seeking firms and self-interested consumers.

There are two mistakes you can make when it comes to regulation: one is to believe market forces are infallible, the other is to believe they're of little consequence and incapable of utterly frustrating the regulators' good intentions.

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TALK TO BIBLE MEANS BUSINESS

Sydney, Monday, July 30, 2012

Thanks for inviting me to be your discussion starter tonight. I’m not sure how much help I’ll be in your continuing exploration of the hypothesis that ‘there are identifiable values that contribute to the resilient prosperity of a culture’, but I’m happy to give you some observations to spark off - even if they convince you that I’m not on about what you’re on about.

On the question of business ethics, let me just say my strongest feeling on the subject is that businesses ought to be built on the principle of treating people well: producing a product you can be proud of, giving customers value for money, doing the right thing by suppliers and shareholders, and treating employees well. This means developing a high degree of mutual trust and loyalty between management and workers, putting effort into making employees’ work satisfying and fairly paid, giving them a degree of autonomy in their work and using these things - rather than KPIs and performance pay - to keep workers motivated, hard working and committed to the company’s objectives. I’m a great believer in emphasising intrinsic rather than extrinsic motivation: doing things well for their own sake, not for any external, monetary or status rewards good work may bring. I really believe it should be a high priority to make work more satisfying. I don’t believe in treating ‘em mean to keep ‘em keen. That’s not ethical - and it’s certainly not Christlike.

Much as most people hate change, this doesn’t mean aiming for a workplace that never changes in response to advances in technology, changing customer needs, competitive pressures (or a continued high exchange rate). Businesses must change, and sometimes - as now for many industries, including mine - change needs to be rapid and sweeping, with a lot of people losing their jobs. The ethical position is not to avoid change or even minimise it, but to bring it about in a considered and reasonable way, with never-ending explanation of why it’s necessary, consultation about the best response and considerate treatment of people who lose their jobs or have their jobs changed or moved. The ethical position is not to bluntly assert management’s right to manage without adequate explanation, and pull on a stand-up fight with the unions (or to ride roughshod over workers who are un-unionised). I believe there’s growing evidence that running businesses in this pro-people way leads to higher productivity and profitability. But even if there were no such evidence it would still be the right thing to do.

The other thing I wanted to say is to propose the notion of ‘balance’ as one of the values that contributes to resilient prosperity. A closely related value or virtue in my mind is ‘self-control’. One of the most useful ideas in economics is the notion of trade-offs and optimisation (rather than maximisation) leading to balance or equilibrium.

The world consists of many desirable, but conflicting, objectives. They’re in conflict mainly because of opportunity cost: we never have sufficient resources to satisfy all our desires, so we’re forced to choose. The world also consists of useful but rival means to achieve our objectives; again, we have to choose. It’s rarely the case that best outcome - the one yielding the most utility or satisfaction or prosperity - comes from choosing all of one and none of the others. The best outcome almost always arises from some combination of the conflicting objectives or the rival means to achieve objectives. This is what puts much of the challenge into life - including business life: finding the most desirable, optimising combination of conflicting objectives. We may profitably spend much of our lives seeking to improve the trade-offs we face. And the best trade-off may change over time as our preferences change and the environment in which we make our choices changes.

So the thing we’re seeking is the right balance. For many years my motto as a commentator has been Hard Head, Soft Heart. I want to think carefully and logically about how the world works and what I want out of life. But just as I don’t want to lead a life driven by instinct and emotion, so I don’t want to lead a life devoid of emotion. Emotion is very important; it’s emotion that makes us human. Take away emotion and we become calculating machines. We need emotion because it determines our preferences and goals - our ‘ends’ - but we need rationality, logic to determine the most efficient means to achieve our ends. So I think hard head, soft heart ought to be everyone’s motto. After all, who wants to be soft-headed or hard-hearted?

Such a motto helps us get the right balance in our lives. And one of the big risks and failings in life is lack of balance - going overboard in one direction or the other. Market economies - and the theory of market economies, conventional economics - tempt us to go overboard in the direction of self-interest, depersonalisation and materialism. Market economies are motivated by - powered by - self-interest, they encourage us to be terribly conscious of our needs and emotions, but to avoid thinking about the needs and emotions of the people we deal with, many of whom we don’t know. Market economies and conventional economics, with their focus on efficiency, tempt us to prioritise our material needs at the expense of our social, relational and spiritual needs. The material aspect of our lives is very important - no one could deny it - but there are other aspects of our lives that are also important. And, particularly for people in a country as affluent as ours, I find it hard to see how we can make increasing our material standard of living such a high priority - personally and as a government objective. That’s why I trust your definition of ‘prosperity’ is wider than just material prosperity. It needs to take account of the state of the natural environment (still material), but also the treatment of people: the fairness with which material prosperity is distributed, and the extent to which the pursuit of material comfort comes at the expense of people’s relationships and their spiritual life. For what does it profit a man if he gains the whole world and loses his own soul? True prosperity involves trade-offs, optimisation and balance.

I want to finish with an observation about a paradox at the heart of the market economy: for an individual to do well in that economy, he or she has to put a great amount of effort into resisting its blandishments. Its advertising and other marketing tempt us to eat too much, drink too much, spend too much and save too little, borrow more than we can handle, and sit round being entertained when we should be working, studying or exercising. Success in a market economy is reserved for those people who exercise all the virtues advertisers urge us to set aside: disciple, restraint and the ability to delay gratification - in short, self-control.

Don’t you think it’s strange that to succeed in a capitalist economy you have to be so good at not doing what the capitalists urge you to do? And that’s just material success. Making sure the temptations of modern life don’t damage your relationships with your spouse and your family - or with God - requires an even higher level of conscious effort.

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